GideonGriebenow

Never (not yet). There were times when I spent a week trying to figure out what unknown demon was causing bugs, but never so much that I regretted it. In fact, since I dropped my consultancy work, there hasn't been one day that I was not motivated to work on this.

I am a huge fan. That's why I chose the World Turtle myth as setting (which STP also borrowed). Just to be sure, I actually contacted Rhianna Pratchett, and she has no problem with me using it, as long as I don't make it "Discworld-y",

Thanks! You need to feed the Turtle to keep it from starving, and also to steer it to / away from certain part of space that impact your humidity, temperature, flux (power), etc. There will be more "things" in space to also interact with later. Snow comets accumulate on the flippers and crash down one your stuff from time to time. The turtle also flies through areas of gas pollution, and you need to stockpile enough water to cater for this.

Hi. I'm aware of the factors you're mentioning here, but there are a few things you're missing as well. I've looked at various sources showing many practical examples, and I know some games "bomb" and some "soar", but 20% of initial wishlists sold in one year is quite a gloomy forecast.

For example, in this post, we see the median sales to wishlists in the first week is 20%, with quite a few going over 50% even.

https://newsletter.gamediscover.co/p/steam-the-new-wishlists-to-first

Of course, there are huge ranges, but there are also huge ranges in quality, genre popularity, and many other factors to consider. My game is in one the most popular genres on Steam, my demo has been out for over a year for people to try and see if they like it, etc. So I'm positive my chances of "bombing" are smaller than most games released.

There is also the exposure you get from Steam in the week or so prior to release that can add a lot of wishlists, more events I'm participating in, and Youtube/Streamer coverage that will be coming through (some have already confirmed coverage).

But, yes, getting a "fraction" of the sales price is correct, but factored in ;)

Oh, I haven't answered the question yet! Sorry. Here goes. I'm currently gaining wishlists at a very good rate, so it really remains to be seen where I can end up. Personally I'd be happy if I sell 10,000 copies in a year. If we're going to stick with your 20% of pre-launch wishlists sold per year, I'm doomed financially, but I have good reason to believe it won't be that bad.

Edit: Here's another article about sales to followers.
https://www.gamedeveloper.com/business/steam-s-follower-counts---hidden-in-plain-sight-
And I quote:
"
This follower count - as the wishlist count - changes drastically (upwards!) after launch. But if you’re checking very close to a Steam launch, here’s a basic rule of thumb from the ever helpful Jake Birkett: "Basically followers x 2.5 = week 1 sales. But of course it can vary quite a lot for different games, and probably for different reasons."
Let’s take Within The Cosmos, which has 1,600 Steam followers and is launching on Friday, August 16th. Perhaps it adds a few more followers by its launch hour.
Even so, via Jake’s basic formula this implies it should sell just over 4,000 copies in its first week - and perhaps 20,000-25,000 copies in the first year, but not all of those at full price. Not bad! Not bad? (Depends on how much it cost, if there’s other platforms, etc.)
"
If this pans out for me, as it stands, I'll sell 2500 in the first week and 10K in the year, which would be just fine, since I'm still gaining wishlists currently.

I don't expect to break even compared to my "real career" - I am fortunate that I have a very niche, well-paying job. If I sell 10,000 copies over a year (sales taper of *very* quickly anyway), it would be worth it for me. I would need some good streamer exposure to get there, but wishlists have increased drastically over the last 2.5 months, so I'm hopeful this will continue.

And there's a lot of non-financial value in it for me, given my life stage, family, what I need to have time for, etc.