I’ve been a follower and huge fan for several years now. Your polling analysis is consistently the best out there.
Here’s my question. David Shor was recently asked in a Q&A about some of the “forecasting wars,” specifically about your model vs. Nate Silver’s / 538’s. He said Silver comes at forecasting from more of a “sports/gambling prediction for predictions sake” perspective, while you come with more of a poli sci perspective. Do you agree with that being the fundamental difference between your approaches or is it something else?
Would also love to hear what books, research papers, etc. have contributed most to your understanding of US politics, polling, etc.
ajibajiba81 karma
Hi Elliot,
I’ve been a follower and huge fan for several years now. Your polling analysis is consistently the best out there.
Here’s my question. David Shor was recently asked in a Q&A about some of the “forecasting wars,” specifically about your model vs. Nate Silver’s / 538’s. He said Silver comes at forecasting from more of a “sports/gambling prediction for predictions sake” perspective, while you come with more of a poli sci perspective. Do you agree with that being the fundamental difference between your approaches or is it something else?
Would also love to hear what books, research papers, etc. have contributed most to your understanding of US politics, polling, etc.
Thanks!
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