I’m Tim Urban, writer of the blog Wait But Why. AMA!

What do you think about the letter calling for a 6 month pause on AI development beyond GPT-4?

I agree with it! I'm still working out where I stand on the excited <> worried <> terrified spectrum, but either way, caution is the obvious move.

I'm currently doing a lot of intake on this topic—reading, discussing, thinking—and will write something about it once I get more clarity on what I think.

Can you bring me my water bottle? 🙏🏼

Done

What do you think of the implications of chat GPT on social relationships? If AI can be friendlier, more compatible, more patient, and more knowledgeable than anyone you know, then people will rely on it more and less on those around them. Will this cause further fragmentation and isolation in our already divided world?

I heard someone say the other day that extraverts think the internet makes people lonelier and introverts think the internet makes people less lonely.

I think it'll be like that. Some people are great at making friends. Others are not. But social connection is something almost all of us need, and loneliness is excruciating.

I do think AI friends will be a thing, and I think it'll be a great thing for people who normally have a hard time making friends. And maybe a depressing turn of events for people who already have a lot of friends. But those people have a lot of friends, so they're fine. So I think it'll be a net positive.

What would you change about the "How to Pick Your Life Partner" article after recent life milestone?

I reread that article recently and think it holds up surprisingly well, given that I somehow had the gall to write it when I was years away from being married. If I had to do it over, I might soften the "these marriages are bad and these are bad reasons to get into a marriage" language a bit. It's just so not a black and white situation. It's two complicated people forming a complicated, evolving partnership together, and a lot of different types of marriages—even those that seem not so great from the outside—can work well for the people in them.

I think the Forgettable Wednesday and Traffic Test points from Part 2 are really correct and really important. Most of marriage is hanging out chatting unremarkably on a random day. That certainly doesn't need to be exhilarating at all times, but if it's generally pretty fun to be together, it makes your life generally pretty fun.

Currently having a random tiny baby living in my apartment emphasizes another point: It's a really good idea to date for long enough to really work out your major issues with each other before having a kid. You want to be on the same page about most big things, and when conflict or disagreement inevitably comes up, you want to be old pros at working through it and coming to compromise. I said the other day that I was thankful our dogs were not puppies right now, because having a baby and training a puppy at the same time would be a nightmare, and it's the same deal with relationships. Need the relationship fully out of the puppy phase before the baby comes!

Do you like trains?

I like trains. I am always blown away that the first trains happened in like 1804. That is a really old time to have something as modern as trains. John Adams could have gone on a train. Napoleon could have gone on a train. It doesn't make sense. I also don't know if I'm correct about the 1804 time but I think I am. What I know for sure is that Abe Lincoln rode on trains, which again just doesn't compute. He's from like the 1400s.

The other thing I like about trains is their insane potential. I don't know if Hyperloop-like technologies are still called "trains" but I want there to be a 1,000 mph train! Imagine going from LA to SF in 30 min like taking a subway from Brooklyn to Uptown Manhattan.

Hi Tim, long term fan of WBW here. Thank you for doing this AMA.

1. How worried are you about the possibility of an existential catastrophe within the next 10-100 years?
2. If you're familiar with the concept of the 'metacrisis' and Daniel Schmachtenberger's work on finding a 'third attractor' – do you think that this is a good framing through which to look at the problem of existential risk and potential approaches to managing it?

P.S. Congrats on becoming a father!

1. Ranges from "meh" to "AAAAHH" depending on the day/mood
2. Haven't come across this topic but hugely admire Daniel Schmachtenberger's way of thinking and communicating. Will add it to the list.

What's your response to some of the criticism laid down for your new book? Especially the blog written by Nathan Robinson?

I have found all of the feedback—positive and negative—fascinating to read, and I'm happy that there has been more positive than negative. I was bracing myself for some real political hate and I've been pleasantly surprised at how few people have tried to cancel me. It really says something about how things have changed since 2020/2021. The negative feedback has been more stuff like Robinson said—that I focused on the wrong thing, that I misdiagnosed the problem.

I disagree with that because to me, the problem of rising political tribalism, rising mobs, rising demagogues, declining discourse, and declining ability to know what's true affects ALL of the other problems. We face a ton of existential risks, and we need to be as wise as possible moving forward. And I believe hypercharged political tribalism is making society much less wise and much more chaotic.

Here's how I talk about it in the book's conclusion:

“The liberal democracy is an artificial environment, carefully crafted to both contain human nature and convert it into an engine of progress. Like all environments, it’s a behavior-shaping mechanism. It’s natural to take our environment for granted—to assume that that’s “just the way things work.” But a liberal democracy is a human construct, held in place not only by laws but by the “support beam” of the high-rung immune system—by shared notions of what is and isn’t tolerable or harmful and by shared determination to uphold those standards. When that support beam weakens, the environment can quickly collapse back to the more natural human habitat of the Power Games.”
My book is about the "support beams" of our society and how I believe they're in peril. If they falter, we will fail at all of those other existential challenges. That's why I believe it is the top problem to address.

Are you still determined to freeze (read cryonic) yourself to be revived later on? What are your thoughts on accepting and experiencing death as a vital part of consciousness experience? It seems that people who go through psychedelic therapies stop worrying about death.

First of all, I definitely, definitely want to die. No one wants to live for a Graham's Number of years. Or a Graham's Number of Graham's Number of years. I promise you. What I'm not into is involuntary death. Hard to imagine people living in a world where people die when they're ready wishing they could time machine back to today.

As for cryonics, I still think it makes sense—when today's technology can no longer save me, I'd rather toss my brain to the future than have it disintegrate. The only upsetting asterisk is that if you die normally, there's a 0% chance some sick fuck will get ahold of your brain later on and torture you for a million years, and if you do cryonics there's an absurdly tiny but nonzero chance of that happening. Which is upsetting. Not sure how to balance that with all of the amazing positive possibilities.

Do you have any tips on how to have conversations with people about the ideas in "What's Our Problem?" I love the book, but have struggled with how to talk about it without just telling people to go read it.

It's not easy! Which is part of why I wrote a book. In frustrating conversations I'd feel like I needed to do an 8 hour presentation to the person to fully explain my position. My advice for tough political conversations is to speak with your Higher Mind at their Higher Mind. You have to make both of your Primitive Minds leave the room before any productive or interesting discussion can happen, and once they do, it's amazing how much can come out of the convo. So don't attack, don't roll your eyes, don't interrupt them when they're trying to get their point out. Hear them out. Ask questions. Point out areas where you agree with them. Then explain your own position in a calm, humble tone.

If you're talking about What's Our Problem? start with the basics: explain the Ladder and maybe the concept of Echo Chambers and Idea Labs and see where it takes you.

You’ve returned just at that exponential graph line growth. You know, the one where AI becomes smarter every day. I’ve started reading your blog because of those article series. I just didn’t think the AI sentience would have to happen during our lifetime.

As someone who has anticipated this moment years ago, what are you feelings and thoughts now?

It’s getting a little scary after that public letter signing a request to pause AI development for 6 months. But the genie is out of the bottle. If US stops, then China would pick it up.

And then what about jobs? How do we prepare for this. AAAAAA. Ya know, I just hope that if it does come to human genocide, AI would at least make us all infertile instead of killing on the spot.

I've been reading a lot of history recently and continually struck by how scary it must have been to be part of an ancient civilization, never knowing if outsiders were going to break through the gates and burn everything, not knowing what the stars were or if that comet in the sky was an important omen, not knowing what was over the ocean horizon. It must have been so scary, so uncertain, but also so full of wonder and possibility. And I'm grateful, and also a little bummed out, that I live in a time with so much more knowledge and security.

Then I start thinking about exponential technology and realize that we're in the same exact situation as all of those old civilizations. We may know what's over the ocean horizon but we have absolutely no idea what's over the technological horizon. We may not have to worry about horse nomads destroying our civilization but we do have to worry about technology doing it. We know the stars aren't light peaking out from the underside of the dome of heaven, but if things go well, technology could create a world that might as well be heaven.

We are living in a crazy climactic time in human history, but we are also just another civilization facing incredible uncertainty, full of fear and wonder.

In the spirit of non-tribalism and steel-manning opposing viewpoints, what is a piece of critical feedback about your book that you agree with, or has caused you to re-think some of the points raised in the book?

Some people have pointed to elements of "our problem" that I didn't mention or barely mentioned in the book, e.g. income inequality. I wish I could have included all the major factors but I decided to either dig deep on something or cut it.

Someone pointed out that my high-rung / low-rung dichotomy could be interpreted as a different form of classism—the uppers and the lowers! That was very much not my intention. I said a couple times in the book that low-rung-ness isn't a group of people but a quality in all of us—but I probably should have made that even clearer, since the last thing I'd want to do in a book about why division and demonization sucks is to create a new division with a new group to demonize.

Some people have commented on the shortness of the conclusion after such a long diagnosis of the problem. In a future edition, I'd like to expand this part more.

Do you have a name for that stick man who appears in all your illustrations?

No because they're all different stick men. A few characters have appeared in multiple articles, like Instant Gratification Monkey et al, Bok the caveman, and the sponge, but in general, there are very few recurring characters on Wait But Why. One time, while watching me fail 20 times to draw a head circle, my wife was like "dude just make a few good head circles and reuse them." But for some reason, that feels wrong. So I do each new stick figure from scratch, even though I'm a terrible artist and it takes me forever.

Why did you devote so few pages in your book to right-wing low-rung thinking? I've heard you mention this before (an interview or something) as being necessary because most of your audience is left-wing. I don't think that's necessarily as true anymore. I would say most of your audience, based on my interaction here, are these 'anti-woke' types who don't need the extra 150 pages on why wokeness is bad. I'm specifically wondering why you wouldn't devote an equal or even comparable amount of words to the right-wing? I felt that part of the book was especially shallow.

Totally fair question. I answered it partially above:

I've surveyed my audience and 3/4 of them are on the political left, and I didn't want to spend too much time preaching to the choir.

As someone who grew up immersed in politically blue environments, and being a lifelong blue voter, I felt like I had a much better understanding of the progressive psychology. Same reason I focused on America: you always understand your home country best. Progressive America has always been my political "home country." I believe the underlying problem is the same on the left and the right, even though on the surface they're different, so it was more important to me to go really deep in at least one area than it was to make sure I gave both areas equal time.

The fact is, I couldn't deep dive everywhere to the extent I did with what I call SJF, because it takes multiple years. I had time for one really deep dive, and for the reasons above, I chose that one. As for my readers, I think more are in the "sure, wokeness is over the top, but the anti-woke crowd has also lost their mind" camp than in the "wokeness is a major problem" camp. I know a lot of my friends are in that former camp, and that's always a decent proxy for where my readers are. From my many many conversations, I've found that people who feel this way tend to share my values, so it seemed like a good use of a deep dive to try to explain to them why I feel differently.

Do you see large income and wealth differences as a major issue to the functioning of society?

I haven't explored this topic in depth, but there is a worrying trend with skyrocketing inequality leading to civilizational collapses throughout history, so yes.

Hi Tim! Huge fan of Wait But Why for a long time and loved when you organised the Wait But Hi meet ups a few years ago - made some great friends! Just wondering if you have any plans to do anything like that again? I've moved countries and would love to meet a new group! Thanks!

Yes, we talk about this all the time, just gotta make the time for it. It was such an exhilarating thing for us to connect thousands of people around the world—I hope some are still friends.

One of the Wait But Hi events I helped organize was speed dating, and it was fun, and I've always wanted to dig deeper here. Meeting someone you want to date is such a huge priority for so many people, and meeting people on apps sucks for a lot of people, and it feels like there's huge room for creativity here.

A lot of your posts and your TED talk are near perfect analogies for the challenges of ADHD, yet ADHD is never specifically mentioned. Myself and others saw themselves in your post years before we got a diagnosis. Have you ever made this link?

I really don't know. I've never gone to an expert to find out if I fit the description of ADHD. I never have trouble focusing when the pressure is on (final exams, night before a post deadline, doing a TED Talk!), just lots of trouble wrangling myself when the pressure is not sky high. I don't know much about ADHD, so I'm not sure whether that qualifies me.

What from your research surprised you most while writing the book?

Being smart makes you more prone to confirmation bias.

In retrospect, it shouldn't have been surprising. Confirmation bias is what happens when the little lawyer in your head takes control of your thinking process—and smart people have a very smart little lawyer in there.

You are hosting an intimate dinner party for 6 deceased / non-living people (including yourself). Which 5 guests do you invite and what is your opening conversation starter to the group?

Alexander the Great

Julius Caesar

Muhammad

Genghis Khan

Hitler

And I'd be like, "You all tried to take over the world. Let's discuss!"

In your email, you said that you’re going to be publishing more frequently now. Does it mean we should expect new articles on a monthly/weekly basis?

Regular podcast episodes coming soon. Short posts coming back soon. Holding off on long posts until I finish the book I'm currently working on!

how has having a new born baby changed your life so far?

So far, it's hard to evaluate anything because the first month is just chaos. But:

I have to actually work efficiently during my designated work blocks, which is a new concept.

I feel immense love for a 7-pound wiggleworm, which is also a new concept.

I went alone to Iceland for 12 days last year on a whim for a hardcore writing session, something I definitely can't do this year.

I had my first moment of being even more upset about potential existential disasters because of how it might affect this future human of mine.

I expect the bigger, deeper changes are yet to come—will report back!

What do you think about society moving towards remote work and drastically cutting down the amount of in-person social interactions?

I like the concept of society discovering that remote work is possible for most professions. It opens a lot of doors and makes companies more nimble. But I hope most companies stick with in-person. Remote work sounds great at first, but the lack of social interaction is a recipe for depression for a lot of people. I also wonder whether it'll be a net positive or negative for marriages. On one hand, more time together! On the other hand, no breaks from each other!

What does your morning and night routines look like?

I have different routines when I'm in different zones. Let's start with mornings.

HARDCORE

Wake up around 7am (baby is responsible for this appallingly adult time)

Brush my teeth, make coffee, straight to the computer

7:30am: Write (or research or outline or whatever is currently called for) for three deep focused hours

10:30am: Do whatever else I need/want to do for the rest of my day. The important work is done!

MEDIUMCORE

7-10am: Tim time. Leisurely shower, good time for creative thoughts. Slowly get my life together while listening to whatever history podcast or sci-fi audiobook I'm currently addicted to. Make a cup of coffee that I'll nurse in my Ember mug over the next 2 hours. Hour of dicking around the internet.

10am: Deep focus writing with periodic breaks till early afternoon

SHITCORE

7-5pm: Dick around while hating myself

5pm-dinner: Write while hating myself

---

I have had long periods of living my worst shitcore life, but I'm happy to say I've been more mediumcore than shitcore lately. I am still yet to ever accomplish a hardcore morning, even though that's been my plan like 9,000 times.

Nights usually go along with mornings. When I'm shitcoring in the morning, I'm usually shitcoring at night too, staying up unnecessarily late, either getting the writing in that I should have gotten in earlier or doing god knows what else. But baby exhaustion has had me out before midnight for the last month, so hopefully that sticks!

A lot of questions!

1. What do you think of the recent letter that went out urging AI research to pause for at least 6 months?
2. Where are you traveling/writing about next? I enjoyed your writing about places like North Korea
3. What's living rent free in your mind right now?
4. How's Winston?

I answered 1 somewhere else: I agree with it! I'm still working out where I stand on the excited <> worried <> terrified spectrum, but either way, caution is the obvious move. I'm currently doing a lot of intake on this topic—reading, discussing, thinking—and will write something about it once I get more clarity on what I think.

2: Glad to hear it! I would love to do another travel series sometime. Top of the list: Antarctica, India, Mongolia, Ethiopia.

1. This chart

2. He's thriving as usual. Staying with friends until we move to more of a tortoise-friendly apartment.

Will there be another post in the Elon Musk series post Twitter acquisition?

No plans to write about Twitter at the moment, but would like to write about Starship, Starlink, and a follow-up Neuralink post.

Out of the non-USA politics phenomena you are aware of, which one puzzles you the most?

I have no idea what's going on in India but it seems intense.

Was your huge focus on SJF in the book at least partly an attempt to appeal more to Republicans?

There were a couple reasons:

1) I've surveyed my audience and 3/4 of them are on the political left, and I didn't want to spend too much time preaching to the choir.

2) As someone who grew up immersed in politically blue environments, and being a lifelong blue voter, I felt like I had a much better understanding of the progressive psychology. Same reason I focused on America: you always understand your home country best. Progressive America has always been my political "home country." I believe the underlying problem is the same on the left and the right, even though on the surface they're different, so it was more important to me to go really deep in at least one area than it was to make sure I gave both areas equal time.

when will we be able to buy a paper version of your book?
(i have a strong preferation for that version and would love to buy it)

Possibly down the road, but not for now. There were a few reasons we decided to skip print. Mainly, it would have delayed launch from February to more like September, which for a book about current events is an eternity. The upside of skipping print in this case was that it could be super current—there are stories in the book that took place just a few weeks before publication. There's also the fact that this was originally designed as an online series, so it's full of big color drawings. The only way to do that as a print book would be to make a big expensive ($40+) book. So that combo—delaying a timely book by 7 months so that we could include by far the most expensive format—just seemed not worth it.

We have gotten a LOT of requests for print, though, so we may print it at some point. Still deciding.

Have you ever met Randall Monroe? I would totally watch a show where the two of you just hung out and talked about literally anything

We chatted once. Love his comics!

Respectfully, I think your book discounts the extent to which some folks were brought to zealotry/certainty by their personal experiences. For example, Aunt Jemima was never popular/liked by black consumers, but it's only recently that detractors had power to push for it to be removed from American branding - whereas in 1991 folks just didn't engage when invited to a breakfast highlighting her. Police brutality was widely discussed/remembered before we had a bunch of cell phone footage revealing it more broadly. Describing it solely as developing through marxism and other critical theory seems to miss part of the origin story.

Have you considered publishing critiques of your book on WBW?

I am a giant fan of Liberal Social Justice, which is the broad set of movements which tackle issues like the ones you mentioned. My issue has never been with passionate social movements—only with the movements that act like the mafia, using blackmail and other kinds of illiberal coercion to achieve their goals. I spent a lot of time reading about successful social movements in US history, and what most had in common was they used common-humanity rhetoric and persuasion to make change.

That's why I separate social justice into two terms: Liberal Social Justice and Social Justice Fundamentalism. If you only have one term, you either have to accept both or throw the baby out with the bathwater. I believe SJF is not only ineffective at eradicating injustice, it is counterproductive and undermines the work of LSJ activists.

Hey Tim! What keeps you motivated?

Curiosity

The excitement of publishing something new

The connection I feel to my readers

The desire to control my hours and location

Congrats on your book and child, Tim! Now that you are married and have a kid and are starting a family, do you have any follow up to "The Marriage Decision" post? Any insights you have gained from these years of marriage and starting a family that might be added to this post? A "The Marriage Decision: revisited" if you will. Thank you so much, love your work.

It's funny because I did that post while not yet engaged as kind of a collaboration with my now-wife. We're both super analytical and one of our topics at the time was whether we should get married. It seems crazy to us now that we were ever debating it, but analytical people love to play devil's advocate.

One thing I might change about the article is putting a bit more emphasis on the fact that marriage is only one way to live a good life. I know incredibly happy couples who are not married and never intend to be. I know happy polyamorous couples and happy monogamous couples. I know happily single people who don't intend to ever be in a lifelong partnership. I think marriage is a great thing for many couples—it certainly helped me and my wife go from crazy analytical zone to content zone—but it's just one way to do things.

what is your opinion of hexagons?

They're the bestagons

What is something you disagree with your closest and smartest friends?

Most of my friends think I'm crazy for wanting to do cryonics. Working on convincing them though.

Do you have any intentions at the moment of stopping Wait But Why?

When I die!

What is your processing for changing your mind when you suspect your previous opinion may be wrong?

I like to find a friend who I know agrees with the opinion and play devil's advocate. I'll say that I think it might be wrong, and the friend will usually be like "wtf no it's not," and then we'll argue for a while, and afterwards I usually have a way clearer picture of what I think.